10/12/2023 0 Comments Dorian path models after floridaBeyond 72 hours the shading trends toward blue, indicating less confidence in various track scenarios. The red shading below indicates confidence in the track, measured by consensus in the 51 member ensemble guidance suite of forecast tracks. The European Model is a good example of the spread in possible scenarios. Global + Hurricane Models for Dorian, initialized 12 UTC August 30. However, some forecast models are taking a more significant northerly track either at or slightly before a Florida landfall and tracking the storm north along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines. Forecast models are handling this breakdown in the ridge differently, with most models remaining on a course toward Florida. These steering currents should remain well established through the next 2-3 days, however a breakdown in the Bermuda high and associated blocking ridge is expected to occur about 72 hours from now, which brings uncertainty to the steering currents that impact the motion of the storm. Currently, Hurricane Dorian is being steered between a Bermuda High and an upper level low centered over the Bahamas. The Weather Prediction Center at NOAA is forecasting up to 15 inches of rain well inland and along the eventual landfall path of Hurricane Dorian, with the possibility of higher local totals.ħ Day Total Accumulated Precipitation Forecast for CONUS Source: WPC/NOAAįorecast model guidance remains in tight agreement on a slow shift to the west occurring in the next few days, bringing Hurricane Dorian in close proximity to the northern Bahamas. Additionally, heavy rainfall at landfall becomes more of a concern with systems that progress slowly, as was the case with Hurricanes Harvey and Florence of the previous two years. Given the slow-moving nature of the storm, it is more likely that a high tide cycle will coincide with a period of onshore winds, thus increasing the chances of a dangerous storm surge. It is too early to determine where the largest surge impacts will be felt, as this is sensitive to landfall location and local coastal geography and orientation. Slow forward motion prolongs the amount of the time that strong winds are blowing over water, and allows storm surge to build to higher levels, especially along the coast and eventually inland. Recent forecast models and observations indicate that Hurricane Dorian will continue to intensify, while also experiencing a reduction in forward motion. Status: category-2, major hurricane (category-3 or higher) strength expected later today.Extent of hurricane force winds from center: 25 miles.Location: 480 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.Source: NHCĬategory 2 Hurricane Dorian Status – 11AM EDT (NHC) NHC Advisory 24 Indicating the earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds. NHC Advisory 24A Indicating the addition of a Hurricane Watch for the Bahamas. The onset of tropical storm force winds in Florida is expected by early Sunday, with a forecast landfall time of early Tuesday morning. The NHC best intensity forecast calls for category-4 landfall on the south central Florida coast late this weekend, with the cone of uncertainty encompassing all of the Florida coastline and reaching into southern Georgia. The NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch for northern portions of the Bahamas. Dorian is moving northwest at 12 mph, located 255 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Recent Hurricane Hunter flights measured category-2 winds of 110 mph, and an expansion of the extent of hurricane force winds. These aspects of the forecast, along with track and intensity considerations are discussed below.ĭorian has begun a slow westward turn overnight, in a predicted shift toward the Bahamas and Florida. A developing concern was the slowing down of the system, which has implications for the magnitude of storm surge and rainfall. The expectation was that large portions of the Bahamas and Florida will experience prolonged periods of hazardous weather conditions related to Hurricane Dorian, which is forecast to be category-4 as it approaches land. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast remained largely unchanged. Hurricane Dorian continued to become better organized as it moved over deep ocean heat content, and then began a slow predicted shift to the left toward Florida.
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